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Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway


Subject:  Re: Mr. Market & The Floor Date:  12/13/2012  12:55 PM
Author:  rationalwalk Number:  196902 of 235798

I just don't see reasons that are good for clients in increasing the
allocation when the price rises and the value estimate doesn't.
That's simply buying more of something when it gets more expensive.

I completely agree which is why Tilson's statement about buying more after the announcement was odd.

There isn't any way to argue that the intrinsic value of Berkshire changed all that much based on the buyback itself. There was some value gained there to be sure, but it was dwarfed by the size of the market move right at the open.

The other argument is that even if intrinsic value did not increase, downside protection became more firm with the buyback level rising from 1.1x to 1.2x. However, even if it is true that there is a "floor" associated with the published buyback level, that has little to do with permanent loss of capital which is supposed to be how value investors assess risk.

One interesting aside that I have yet to see explored is the "risk" that the buyback threshold could be reduced in the future just as it was increased yesterday. That may be unlikely but so was the idea that the buyback level would suddenly increase to 1.2x overnight.
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