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|Subject: Re: Gold - Updated TA||Date: 12/20/2012 11:29 AM|
|Author: MDCigan||Number: 41189 of 41313|
Just saw this article this morning....does look like Rogers has 30% as is line for meaningful correction:
""Most things correct 30 percent every year or two, even in big bull markets – 30 percent corrections are normal and yet gold has only done that once in the past 12 years," Rogers said. "Gold on any kind of historic market basis is overdue for a nice correction."
FWIW, I entered a long trading position last night at 1668 and stopped out of it this morning at 1647. I'll wait until the end of the month to act on the longer-term position and give it another week and a half to potentially retake the 10 month moving average.
One thing I've been thinking about more generally is once technical levels are breached, and you really don't have any particular technical level to look at for support, I think the thing to do is look for a total sentiment washout. I think back to something like the S&P 500 at the March 2009 lows which had 2% bullish sentiment. I think at the silver top in April 2011 it was something like 98 or 99% bullish sentiment.
So in terms of a potential gold bottom, I'd look now at bullish sentiment dropping below 5% or retesting that 1525-1535 level whichever comes first.
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