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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/dec-28-2012-picks-with-2013-tracker-30451814.aspx

Subject:  Dec 28 2012 Picks (with 2013 Tracker) Date:  12/26/2012  4:36 PM
Author:  AllTooFoolish Number:  5934 of 6016

I am posting this monthly picks and will also be starting a 2013 tracker to see how we are doing along the way. 
See the end of the post for the tracker results and 2013 picks.

Based on the latest results as of today’s data release, no companies would qualify as a Long candidate.

Although several stocks are significantly overvalued according to the BI valuation methods, none would qualify as a short candidate either.

Market Valuation: Data suggests we remain in a slightly overvaluation state.
Downside -23%
Upside +14%

I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which is the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be 
   included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)


Summary of Results												
											
	VL	        Current	Down	Up	%<10Y	EPS	Div    3-5Y L 3-5Y H VL 3-5Y   ROE	
Ticker	Date	        Price	Price	Price	Down	Delta   Yield   VL $	VL $	% Chg	<2STD	Name
CAT	23-Nov-12	87.9	78	138	13%	-14%	2.3	125	190	75%	FALSE	Caterpillar Inc.
JNJ	23-Nov-12	70.27	64	81	10%	6%	3.5	85	100	30%	FALSE	Johnson & Johnson
MCD	30-Nov-12	90.18	62	89	45%	6%	3.4	110	130	33%	FALSE	McDonald's Corp.
CVX	7-Dec-12	110	75	107	47%	13%	3.3	130	160	31%	FALSE	Chevron Corp.
XOM	7-Dec-12	87.23	66	92	32%	3%	2.6	110	135	37%	FALSE	Exxon Mobil Corp.
BA	14-Dec-12	76.17	50	78	52%	0%	2.6	90	125	41%	FALSE	Boeing
TRV	14-Dec-12	72.82	41	61	76%	-25%	2.5	80	100	21%	FALSE	Travelers Cos.
UNH	14-Dec-12	55.03	42	68	32%	4%	1.5	95	125	98%	FALSE	UnitedHealth Group
T	21-Dec-12	33.67	26	38	28%	9%	5.3	40	50	31%	FALSE	AT&T Inc.
VZ	21-Dec-12	43.57	23	33	89%	14%	4.7	55	70	42%	FALSE	Verizon Communic.
CSCO	21-Dec-12	19.96	25	42	-21%	7%	2.8	25	30	35%	FALSE	Cisco Systems
HD	28-Dec-12	61.32	34	54	78%	16%	1.9	65	75	12%	FALSE	Home Depot
PG	28-Dec-12	68.72	47	60	47%	1%	3.2	90	110	43%	FALSE	Procter & Gamble
INTC	5-Oct-12	20.77	27	46	-22%	-4%	4.3	35	45	90%	FALSE	Intel Corp.
HPQ	5-Oct-12	14.34				143%	3.7	35	55	211%	TRUE	Hewlett-Packard
IBM	5-Oct-12	193	136	198	42%	10%	1.8	235	285	33%	FALSE	Int'l Business Mach.
AA	12-Oct-12	8.57	3	6	202%	1157%	1.4	17	25	141%	FALSE	Alcoa Inc.
DD	12-Oct-12	44.93	50	75	-10%	15%	3.8	95	120	137%	FALSE	Du Pont
MRK	12-Oct-12	41.52	36	58	16%	-8%	4.1	45	55	18%	FALSE	Merck & Co.
PFE	12-Oct-12	25.08	16	24	57%	23%	3.8	30	35	27%	FALSE	Pfizer Inc.
GE	19-Oct-12	20.88	21	31	2%	17%	3.6	30	45	78%	FALSE	Gen'l Electric
MMM	19-Oct-12	93.1	80	112	17%	9%	2.5	120	150	43%	FALSE	3M Company
UTX	19-Oct-12	82.54	61	87