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|Subject: Re: RE: Black Elk's 13.75's of '15||Date: 1/5/2013 2:02 PM|
|Author: altstrat91||Number: 34600 of 36082|
so we basically came to the same conclusion at this point in time. hence my previous mixed bag comment.
i really am bullish on their portfolio of properties, especially Louisiana region, and also their other interest in wells and offshore acreage as well. its quite extensive and vast.
conservatively speaking in a liquidation, all of the above gets you an estimated recovery of somewhere between 70-90 cents on the dollar. but as you point out there are other variables, such as a what if complete global economy collapse, etc.
so with all that said, i would actually take a position in this, but the price points would have be at least 15% lower than now. why pay a premium for this because of all the other reason you cited.
i also concur with your comment on the high interest rate. its definitely an immediate turn off. there is only one holding that i have ever purchased in that >13% coupon range and done well with which was back in 2010 i got a bunch of Alon (ALJ) refinery bonds with a 13.5% coupon for a few pennies above par. i have 25 of these, which is 1.6% of my AUM, and i will hold until they are called from me or redeemed.
can not wait for monday already. i have a couple other prospects i will be looking into and will toss your way.
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