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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/hawk-one-good-call-doesnt-make-me-a-market-30472002.aspx

Subject:  Re: Bond Funds, Again Date:  1/7/2013  6:10 PM
Author:  globalist2013 Number:  34612 of 35367

Hawk,

One good call doesn't make me a market strategist, and that's where I'm stuck right now. I need to put together a market-timing system (aka, a trading system), which I clearly don't have. I'm a good chart jock, but that's not enough to win most races, and that's the downsides of being a fixed-income value-investor who buys individual bonds. "Timing" can be hugely unimportant, due the fact you're buying what amounts to puts. If you buy a bit too early (or late), no biggie. You'll take a hit to gross profits, but you won't trash your account. But if you're buying securities without that price protection (i.e., an enforced exit at par), your downside is where you set your stop, and that takes disciple to set.

I can't applaud and say that you're doing the right thing by your clients, because certainly a case can be made that the Bernank isn't going to let interest-rates rise and --thereby-- increase the gov't's cost of borrowing. ("Never bet against the Fed.") OTOH, anytime traders want to take the Fed to the woodshed and thrash it soundly, they can and will. I'm just sooooo glad I can sit tight on 100% of what I own and sidestep the timing problem.

Charlie
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