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|Subject: Re: good time to get rid of some stuff & TLT/SHV||Date: 1/9/2013 11:01 AM|
|Author: altstrat91||Number: 34629 of 35222|
sure thing Charlie. just wanted to amplify on my comment regarding allot of "folks" have been saying bonds crash for 3+ years and was not alluding to you.....
timing is everything although never perfect. however had you listened to some mainstream sources, you would have missed out on all the action. obviously charlie did not listen and has been doing superbly well.
recently you have articulated your hypothesis on how things will inevitably add up. whatever your level of pessimism or lack there of, the reality is, interest rates at some point will reverse the current trend. and typically the window for this kind of "trade" will happen before it actually happens, if you know what i am saying here. there are technical indicators and such that you can track as charlie has pointed out previously.
for folks like charlie, it still will not change; he will come in day in and day out and do what he does best which is hunt down the best possible risk/reward/yield/real return scenarios. for folks like me though who utilize leverage and trade in and out of corp positions, there are other considerations and variables that are very relevant.
here are a couple bonds i have been vetting.
the first one has great asset coverage and a recovery rating of 2. given current climate, its obviously trading above the recovery range.
this is about a 4 year hold which strategy wise is pretty good because even if interest rates go up in 2014 or things really get hairy in 2015, this bond will still trend to near par, as far as an interest rate risk goes. credit risk is obviously another separate component.
radiation therapy svcs (senior secured classification)
cusip = 750323AD9
coupon = 8.875
currently trading between 1%-2% premium above par. gives you a yield to worst in the 8.5% range.
for the next one, mixed bag. i really like the space and this company has some very impressive products in their pipeline. their issue though relates to cost structure and how they have managed this. also had some issues in the past with respect to sales and missing eps.
exide technologies (senior secured classification)
cusip = 302051AQ0
coupon = 8.625
currently trading at a 12% discount to par which gives you a yield in the upper 11% range. recovery rating here is a 4.
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