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|Subject: Re: trap or opportunity||Date: 1/10/2013 12:28 PM|
|Author: globalist2013||Number: 34642 of 35109|
I regard GGS as a “story bond” (in the same way that some stocks are “story stocks”). Their financial ratios aren’t compelling. But if the story does play out, acceptable money could be made. I’m long the bond, and I added this morning. But I’m not hopeful, not like I am about Travelport (which tagged 60 this morning ON THE BID, nearly doubling my entry-price).
GGS is merely one of the many positions I have to put on, because I need to buy as widely as possible for never knowing what’s going to work. And this is where position-sizing comes into play. "How much am I willing to lose?" I'll buy that much of nearly anything, which is why I'm carrying 300 plus positions and NEVER make focused bets.
In the short term, "Who makes the best money?" Them that bet big on little, i.e., on just their so-called "best ideas". But over the long haul, "Who survives?" Them that bet widely and small. To bet big is to make fragile bets that --when they do by luck work out-- are immediately claimed to have been the product of skill. That's the "narrative fallacy" we humans are subject to. The past looks obvious. The future is anything but obvious. But buying has to be done. So we make our guesses as best we can. GGS is just a guess.
"It's hard to make good predictions, especially about the future. " (Yogi Berra)
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