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Investing/Strategies / Falling Knives
|Subject: FKA: DLTR||Date: 1/15/2013 7:09 AM|
|Author: mungofitch||Number: 13104 of 16420|
Often mentioned here in the past, Dollar Tree looks good to me at $38.
Not screamingly cheap at about 14 times current run-rate earnings, and
not a big fall from its high last June around $57, but I like 'em.
With essentially no debt and steadily rising earnings I think EPS will grow for quite a while.
They've bought back about 4.4% of their shares each year on average in the last 9 years.
All of book/share, cashflow/share, sales/share have risen 16%-17%/year in the last decade.
Net return on assets in the 20-30% range in the last few years.
With luck it's a great business (and simple too!) at a fair price rather than a fair business at a great price.
Target price >=double in <=5 years which means >=15%/year for that period.
Might get cheaper. If so I'll add more.
I did a synthetic long, very rare for me to get that fancy.
(write a put and buy an ITM call: essentially all the risk and reward
but little or no cash up front, though that's not really why I did it)
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