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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/fungi-until-you-run-the-numbers-you-dont-know-30486213.aspx

Subject:  Re: $950K ... now what? Date:  1/15/2013  11:50 AM
Author:  globalist2013 Number:  34680 of 35400

Fungi,

Until you run the numbers, you don't know if you're making a rational choice, not that you have to make rational choices, and most investors don't. They do what "feels right", which is also a choice they can make. Sometimes that works out. But it is also indefensible. Run the numbers and then decide what to do. Don't just make gut-driven, emotion-driven guesses. Lay out the alternatives in enough detail that they really are choices --not just vague fears-- and then choose.

And I'm not giving you any advice I don't follow myself. Unlike some who hang out in this forum and who want to offer their opinions, I'm running serious money in bonds, and I'm constantly having to deal with the problem of getting rid of surplus cash that only becomes more aggravated when a bond I bought at a steep discount has run up and now has a fat, capturable premium.

"Do I do the trade and then scramble to find another place to park the money? Or do I sit tight and continue to clip the coupon?"

Sometimes, to not sell would be totally stupid. The gains are so fat that even when they are prorated over what would have been the former (and much longer) holding-period, the trade turns a higher profit. That's what running the numbers will tell you. OTOH, if the trade would result in a wash, or worse, undue grief, why do it? But the decision is rational and financial, not emotional.

Charlie
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