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Subject:  Re: good time to get rid of some stuff & TLT/SHV Date:  1/17/2013  11:48 AM
Author:  globalist2013 Number:  34699 of 35877


You're being stupid. Really, really stupid. Forget the fundamentals of that bond. Look at the technicals. The YC is inverted. That's the fact you need to explain to yourself, and that's the fact you are betting against. At best --assuming the issuer doesn't file-- what's your upside? A crappy 14%-18%. And for that, you're willing to put major capital at risk?

You're being reckless and irresponsible. Yeah, maybe, you'll be able to get away with it this time. But never over the long haul of making those kinds of bets. Not a chance. Not a single chance, especially when the alternative histories are run another 10,000 times. That's the risk game you need to be playing and where your head needs to be. Under no scenario can a money manager ever put her or himself at risk of getting thrown