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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/for-altstrat-longreits-30493334.aspx

Subject:  For AltStrat & LongReits, Date:  1/18/2013  2:16 PM
Author:  globalist2013 Number:  34704 of 34950
altstrat91 and LONGRETS,

Your joint whining about ‘missed opportunities’ inspired me to create the table below, which is merely part of a longer analysis I’m doing for myself. But I’d say this to both of you.

Never drive yourself crazy with “woulda/coulda/shoulda”.

Instead, fix the problems, which are two-fold: crappy analysis and/or crappy execution. 'Missed opportunities' are generally due to one, or the other (or both), with this caveat. You will NEVER catch every fish in the lake or stream. It just ain’t going to happen, nor should it ever be one’s goal. If your time on the water yields a reasonable catch, thank the fishing gods, and go home happy. And that 'catch', as Ben Hur Lampman writes in his classic essay, “A Leaf from French Eddy”, might be no more than good memories of a glorious day on the water.

Charlie
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A Scoring Card for Buy-side Investors 
		
		
Analysis	                        Result	                       Comment
Predicted 'Up' & Placed a Bet	        Got It Right 	               People generally attribute these wins to 'skill' and rarely to  pure randomness.
Predicted 'Up' & Placed a Bet	        Got It Wrong 	               People always attribute these losses  to 'bad luck' or 'tough markets', never to their own lack of skill. 
		
Predicted 'Up'  but Didn't Bet	        Would Have Gotten It Right     These are the 'misses' that people always remember with regret.
Predicted 'Up'  but Didn't Bet	        Would Have Gotten It Wrong     These are the 'misses' that people oh so conveniently forget.
		
Predicted 'Down' & Backed Away	        Got It Right                   Rarely do people remember these wins, but they should. Money not lost is money won. 
Predicted 'Down' & Backed Away	        Would Have Gotten It Wrong     These are more 'misses' people remember with regret, conveniently underestimating their lack of skill.  
		
Concluded the Facts Were Too Messy	Got It Right 	               Rarely do people remember these wins, but they should. Money not lost is money won. 
Concluded the Facts Were Too Messy 	Got It Wrong	               People always excuse this 'miss' with "no one could have foreseen that".

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