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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/for-altstrat-longreits-30493334.aspx

Subject:  For AltStrat & LongReits, Date:  1/18/2013  2:16 PM
Author:  globalist2013 Number:  34704 of 35396

altstrat91 and LONGRETS,

Your joint whining about ‘missed opportunities’ inspired me to create the table below, which is merely part of a longer analysis I’m doing for myself. But I’d say this to both of you.

Never drive yourself crazy with “woulda/coulda/shoulda”.

Instead, fix the problems, which are two-fold: crappy analysis and/or crappy execution. 'Missed opportunities' are generally due to one, or the other (or both), with this caveat. You will NEVER catch every fish in the lake or stream. It just ain’t going to happen, nor should it ever be one’s goal. If your time on the water yields a reasonable catch, thank the fishing gods, and go home happy. And that 'catch', as Ben Hur Lampman writes in his classic essay, “A Leaf from French Eddy”, might be no more than good memories of a glorious day on the water.

Charlie
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A Scoring Card for Buy-side Investors
		

Analysis Result Comment
Predicted 'Up' & Placed a Bet Got It Right People generally attribute these wins to 'skill' and rarely to pure randomness.
Predicted 'Up' & Placed a Bet Got It Wrong People always attribute these losses to 'bad luck' or 'tough markets', never to their own lack of skill.

Predicted 'Up' but Didn't Bet Would Have Gotten It Right These are the 'misses' that people always remember with regret.
Predicted 'Up' but Didn't Bet Would Have Gotten It Wrong These are the 'misses' that people oh so conveniently forget.

Predicted 'Down' & Backed Away Got It Right Rarely do people remember these wins, but they should. Money not lost is money won.
Predicted 'Down' & Backed Away Would Have Gotten It Wrong These are more 'misses' people remember with regret, conveniently underestimating their lack of skill.

Concluded the Facts Were Too Messy Got It Right Rarely do people remember these wins, but they should. Money not lost is money won.
Concluded the Facts Were Too Messy Got It Wrong People always excuse this 'miss' with "no one could have foreseen that".


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