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Subject:  Re: E con omic Recovery Date:  1/25/2013  5:01 PM
Author:  CCinOC Number:  668315 of 876065

From Mortgage News Daily:

Overnight, the ECB [European Central Bank] reported on the LTRO [longer-term refinancing operations] repayments for the first time since handing out the cheap 3-yr loans in late 2011. It turns out more than half of the 523 banks in the program decided to pay the ECB back as soon as they'll be allowed (5 days from now), which makes for an amount more than 33% bigger than expectations. This is a huge hit for the "EU is gonna collapse!" crowd. Without saying anything about the nature of economic growth in the EU [European Union], that "crowd" is a major reason rates have been as low as they were/are. If the EU looks less on the bring of utter collapse, rates rise, as they have been for the past 7 months (it's been harder to see in terms of mortgages due to the timing of QE3 [quantitative easing phase 3].

Then there's the domestic situation. It might not be all sunshine and lollipops either, but we've had two weeks of big beats in Jobless Claims and NFP [non-farm payrolls] in the coming week along with an FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] announcement from a Fed that's explicitly tied the policy outlook to unemployment! It's hard to know whether NFP or the FOMC Announcement is next week's chicken or egg, but it looks like markets are already getting a bit queasy at the thought of trying to digest either one, should it prove to be the least bit unpalatable.
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