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Stocks D / Disney
|Subject: Re: Another Video Game Failure||Date: 2/7/2013 5:30 PM|
|Author: DCWD40||Number: 48398 of 50062|
This is why I believe Iger is overrated. Yes, he purchased Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm. Even if one agrees with that strategy, it can be argued that they were obvious choices that didn't require much intelligence (and, unlike Eisner, Iger seems willing to overpay).
Overpay? By what metric?
These are long-term assets. But, let's look at them over the short term.
Pixar was acquired by Disney in 2006. Having Steve Jobs on the Board I think is a major reason Mr. Iger has been the success he has. Jobs encouraged Iger to spend the money on Dream and Fantasy (they were both announced in 2007). John Lasseter has been a big success as the Disney Creative Officer (although Cars 2 wasn't his best day -- although that movie has sold a lot of tickets and toys).
Toy Story 3 brought in $1 billion in movie seats sales -- the first animated movie to reach that sales level. Don't forget the free publicity Steve Jobs gave the DVD release by featuring the movie on an iPhone at the OS4 roll-out. DVD gross: $186 million.
And Disney expected $2.4 billion in toy sales from the movie in the year of its release.
Is Toy Story too easy a target? How about Cars doing $2 billion a year in toy sales since 2006?
Marvel, with The Avengers' $1.5 billion at the box office, has moved into the "it makes a lot of sense (and cents)" category. The $4 billion paid in 2009 is money well spent. You overpay based on payoff and this company is putting money in Disney's pockets in a big way.
That leaves Lucasfilm. It's too early to count the dividends here but I think it will perform better than Marvel. It comes with the best in digital effects (something Marvel and Pixar can use) and other production support operations that are industry biggies. They also know how to develop a video game so maybe Disney can rescue its efforts there by using staff at Lucasfilm like they did Jobs and Lasseter at Disney.
I have been critical of the cruise line, games, ABC, and ESPN. So far, Iger has delivered the goods at three of those. Only games, a small piece of Disney, is sucking wind.
Since Iger took over in 2005, he has invested heavily at DCA and that is paying off. Hong Kong? That investment is starting to pay off for the first time. WDW? The new Fantasyland additions are bringing people in. Shanghai? Could be a big winner too.
Mr. Iger has spent big. I think his success in delivering on those assets is reflected in the new highs in the stock price.
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