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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks


Subject:  Re: Control Panel: Channelized? Date:  2/10/2013  7:39 PM
Author:  putnid Number:  415546 of 535090

Just wanted to say thanks again, Wendy, for aggregating these data each week. I find it a handy "one-stop-shopping" reference source.

I'd like to offer a different take on this comment: "Every stock index and sentiment indicator is very strong, with bullish sentiment writ large."

I don't view the charts for the DOW, S&P 500 and Nasdaq as indicating strong movement upward at this point in time. There was that weeks ago, but now these indexes are treading water, more or less. The MACD indicators have been direction-less. They won't stay that way for long.

Given that more than half my portfolio consists of overseas stocks (plus US companies that derive a significant portion of their revenues from overseas sales), I following major global indexes as well. Here's the Eurozone CandleGlance group:

Things seems to be breaking down a bit. (OK, granted, the Nikkei is on a tear but I consider Japan's economy a complete fantasy world).

The emerging markets offer a more confused picture:

China (Shanghai) is definitely on the upswing. But Brazil (Bovespa) and India (Sensex) markets are deteriorating.

All in all, I agree with your general assessment, but I grow increasingly cautious. I'm now at 25% cash and have my "Sell List" handy by my side.
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