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Subject:  Re: Bond Bubble? Date:  2/10/2013  8:52 PM
Author:  Reitnut Number:  73667 of 83803

My sense of things is that we are probably not yet in the 9th inning of the bond game, but perhaps in the top of the 8th. There are tons of pundits who are claiming that bonds are "so over," and they may be right. Everyone is now talking about the "Great Rotation" out of bonds and into stocks. Well, maybe.

But there are bonds and there are bonds. I wouldn't touch US Treasuries, with their very puny yields; however, I think quasi-junk will still perform reasonably well for a while longer, due to investors' need for income in a zero interest rate world and what is likely to remain very slow growth here and abroad.

And if the US economy does grow a bit faster, we may see a sitution where yield spreads will narrow, thus not causing much pain for bond holders who own something a bit less than investment grade with their 3-4% yields. Perhaps 6% yields will be the sweet spot in the bond market? The devil will be in the details.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.

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