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Subject:  Re: trouble ahead for most future retirees Date:  2/17/2013  6:44 AM
Author:  TMFHockeypop Number:  71403 of 88775

With the stock market near it's record high, the only people who are down 40% should be those that sold their stock in a panic in 2008 and kept everything in a low interest bond fund in the interim.


Not that you may not have a point moving forward, but if you had your money in TIP, or BND as compared to the S&P at the beginning of the panic point, you'd be near or above the S&P now.

At the lows, you're right.

I remember watching Doug Short's site comparisons with the great depression in late 2008 and 2009 and I did stick with stocks with some fear. I was younger, earning money, light on bonds, and took a terrific hit.

I acknowledge that we have international manipulation of bond prices resulting in great debt and needed higher taxes, and my personal opinion is this is trying to help the economy on the back of safety for most retirees who have saved AND their pension funds. When you put in the remedies (needed higher taxes, deleveraging, lower spending, less government intervention) I think it's a coin flip still which will be hurt more -- bonds (which recover principle fairly quickly) or stocks.

For retirees I'm just not sure that low percentage of bonds you have is a prescription most could follow. I also acknowledge that you've been darned successful at it.

As far as annuities are concerned, I again largely agree with you, especially in this ZIRP environment. But I just talked with a person who is concerned with diminished capacity that runs in his family. At an older age an immediate annuity might have some value.

Bob ... back to lurking
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