The Motley Fool Discussion Boards
Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks
|Subject: Yoda's 2012 posts in review||Date: 2/24/2013 2:58 AM|
|Author: yodaorange||Number: 416586 of 515596|
Wendy asked me to pick my favorite Yodaorange posts from 2012. I estimated I had about 100 METAR posts and probably less than 100 REIT board posts. Instead of going through all of them, I decided to look over the posts that the Fool Higher Up’s picked as Post of the Day (POTD). My assumption is that they are a more objective judge of what a good post is than the author is.
In going back through 2012 POTD’s, I found that the Fool’s chose 38 of my posts. This was out of a total of 248 POTD’s for the entire year. Stated differently ~15% of the POTD’s were from Yoda. Like I mentioned previously, I never knew which posts would strike the strongest chords on METAR. Likewise, I never knew which posts the Fool’s would select as POTD.
I must confess that I did NOT recall all 38 of these before I went back and looked. Usually after I saw the title, the main points of the post would come back to me. In many cases, I did remember the post, like I wrote it yesterday. Picking the “best” three is entirely in the eye of the reader. My guess is if you had ten different people pick their favorite three, a total of at least 15 to 20 would be chosen. I have attached the list of all 38 with links at the bottom of this post. I have used the titles that the Fool’s assigned. In some cases, it was slightly different than the title I used. In most cases, I think the title gives you a reasonable head start on what the post is about. If you are interested, you can scan the list to see which three you would have chosen.
Since Wendy asked, I have chosen my three “top” picks of 2012. My apologies to the other 35 children that got left out in the cold! (Maybe the goal should have been to have three POTD for the whole year. It would make this easier!). I am including a short description of why I think the post is significant. The three are in chronological order, not in rank order, mostly because I do NOT have a rank order.
1) “Do You need Eurozone Insurance” on 6/29 was a three part series done with REITnut. And yes, REITnut should have won a FESTE years ago IMO. There are two important concepts to take away from the series. The first is that the Eurozone MIGHT go south and affect US investments. That was true when the posts were made and I still think it is true. The Eurozone issues have NOT been solved. There are just not on the front pages any longer, but IMO they will re-appear.
The second important concept is to consider a range of outcomes for the economy/investments. Do NOT use a single “point” forecast to guide your portfolio allocations. An example of this would be: I expect hyperinflation of >100% within X months, therefore I will invest solely based on this expected outcome. The approach we outlined in the posts assigned different probabilities to each outcome, then recommended investment allocations based on this.
The Fools selected the third in the series as POTD.
2) “The Real Libor Scandal” on 7/11 had two main points. And neither had anything to do with the actual libor scandal. I did NOT do as good a job conveying the points as I should have. I worked several months on a follow up post that I never published. The first point is that “Wall Street” has and will continue to push the limits in every way possible. If nobody ends up in jail, it is proof positive that they are using acceptable business practices. It has been this way for at least the last 100 years and probably much longer. Every once in a while, they get a little slap on the wrist and pay a fine. It is just a cost of doing business borne out by the shareholders.
The second major point was that the only hope of reining in “Wall Street” is for the regulators (SEC/Federal Reserve/Justice etc) to constantly RE-DRAW the bright line boundaries. The regulators 100% failed at this leading up the 2008 credit crisis. AND NOTHING HAS CHANGED. Dodd-Frank is NOT the answer.
3) “Financial Repression: Why You Should Care” on 12/17 details the academic research on the low interest rates we have experienced since the 2008 crisis. The post suggests that we should expect low short term rates to continue through 2020 to 2030 as the nominal case outcome! Obviously if this scenario plays out, it has huge implications for investments.
I am confident your top three would NOT be the same as my top three. I take no offense. All in all, it was an interesting posting year for Yoda. Hopefully it helped investors gain some insights or knowledge that otherwise might have been missed. At least that usually was my goal when I wrote the post up.
Yoda's 2012 Posts of the Day as Chosen by the Fool Higher Ups
2/6/2012 The Future of Money Market Funds http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-future-of-money-market/703029...
2/14/2012 The Giant Sucking Sound http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-giant-sucking-sound/708693
3/5/2012 Beware of 2011 Income Taxes http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/beware-of-2011-income-taxes/71614...
3/21/2012 Get Sued for Owning a Stock? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/get-sued-for-owning-a-stock/72076...
3/23/2012 Who Makes Money on Wall Street? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/who-makes-money-on-wall/721425
4/2/2012 Preserving Your Assets http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/preserving-your-assets/723967
4/10/2012 Pension Funds: Rock, or Hard Place? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/pension-funds-rock-or-hard/725752...
4/23/2012 How Safe are Annuities? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/how-safe-are-annuities/728959
4/27/2012 Investing for Higher Inflation http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/investing-for-higher-inflation/73...
5/4/2012 High Frequency Trading: Winners and Losers http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/high-frequency-trading/732120
5/31/2012 Swinging for the Fences http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/swinging-for-the-fences/739171
6/25/2012 Last Days at MF Global http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/last-days-at-mf-global/744510
6/28/2012 What the Stockton Bankruptcy Means http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/what-the-stockton-bankruptcy/7454...
6/29/2012 Do You Need Eurozone Insurance part 3 with REITnut http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/do-you-need-eurozone/745770
7/11/2012 The Real Libor Scandal http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-real-libor-scandal/748224
7/23/2012 How Will Americans Retire? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/how-will-americans-retire/750552
7/25/2012 Searching for REIT Preferreds with REITnut http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/searching-for-reit-preferreds/751...
8/3/2012 Knight Capital: Why You Should Care http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/knight-capital-why-you-should/753...
8/7/2012 No Kill Switch for Knight Capital http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/no-kill-switch-for-knight/753767
8/9/2012 Social Security Withdrawal Options http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/social-security-withdrawal/754210...
8/16/2012 A Junk Bond Bubble? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/a-junk-bond-bubble/755715
8/31/2012 Dark Pool: How the Markets Work http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/dark-pool-how-the-markets/758709
9/5/2012 Why Did Pension Funds buy Facebook? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/why-did-pension-funds-buy/759609
9/13/2012 Investing for the Fiscal Cliff http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/investing-for-the-fiscal-cliff/76...
9/17/2012 The Drivers of GDP Growth http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/when-did-the-iphone-become-the/76...
9/19/2012 When did the iPhone Become the "Must Pay"? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/when-did-the-iphone-become-the/76...
9/24/2012 Tom Gardner Interviews Michael Mauboussin http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/tom-gardner-interviews-michael/76...
9/27/2012 Glidepath Investing for Retirement http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/glidepath-investing-for/764193
10/12/2012 Married to High Frequency Trading http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/married-to-high-frequency/767027
10/22/2012 CA Cities in Bankruptcy http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ca-cities-in-bankruptcy/769236
10/25/2012 Separating Top from Bottom Line http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/separating-top-from-bottom/769974...
11/14/2012 The Fiscal Cliff: Solving The Wrong Problem http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-fiscal-cliff-solving-the/7745...
11/16/2012 Is 1% the New Normal Growth Rate? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/is-1-the-new-normal-growth/775037...
11/21/2012 Own a Stock and Get Sued: Update http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/own-a-stock-and-get-sued/776100
11/27/2012 Time to Dump Mortgage Interest Deduction? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/time-to-dump-mortgage-interest/77...
11/30/2012 Asset Classes to Avoid http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/asset-classes-to-avoid/777908
12/7/2012 Are Mortgage Rates too High? http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/are-mortgage-rates-too-high/77968...
12/17/2012 Financial Repression: Why You Should Care http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/financial-repression-why-you/7820...
|Copyright 1996-2017 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us|