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Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway


Subject:  Re: Buffett premium Date:  2/24/2013  7:30 AM
Author:  rationalwalk Number:  199045 of 236387

Berkshire's intrinsic value is lower without Warren Buffett because the special deals only he can enter into will no longer be available (among other reasons). However, there has not been a Buffett premium in the stock for many years so we are paying nothing for his skills today. To determine the incremental IV attributable to Warren Buffett's remaining years at Berkshire is both impossible and morbid. Such an estimate would require discounting incremental cash flows available from Buffett's skills but not from his successor. To do this you would need some estimate of that additional value, the ability to time those cash flows, an idea of how many more years he has as CEO, and an appropriate discount rate. I prefer to value Berkshire not assuming any Buffett premium. The estimate might be on the low side but it is an academic point at anywhere near current valuations.
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