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Subject:  Re: Bear catchers Date:  2/24/2013  9:51 PM
Author:  Rayvt Number:  241854 of 271127

If three hasn't been a new high in a long time, and breadth is bad
and deteriorating, and the market is falling, and valuations are high,
and interest rates are rising fast, is it really worth betting on a rising market this month?
Probably not.

Yes. Because most of those factors are emotional, not mechanical. And some are incorrect.

The S&P500 recently hit a new high, and is above both the 50 day and the 200 day SMA. And interest rates are stubbornly stuck low.

Good summary Most of this is not happening
Or were you (Jim) being ironic?

FWIW, in just about all of my market timing backtests, the longer you delayed in calling a bear market and going to cash, the better the average return. You want to be the opposite of hair-trigger on getting out.
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