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Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway


Subject:  Re: Buffett premium Date:  2/25/2013  10:54 AM
Author:  WuLong Number:  199063 of 236834

I'd like to make two points.

First, in response to DTM:
What seems so obvious to you and to me, and to so many other people, i.e. that Buffett's presence adds significantly to Berkshire's intrinsic value, must surely be present in Berkshire's market value too, so it seems odd that you keep saying that there is no Buffett premium. How would you know this?
Each person calculates IV for themselves based on their own assumptions. If you calculate IV and assume better than normal returns because of WEB, then you have a Buffett Premium. You should know what that is.
As RW, notes, if you do not include a Buffett Premium, and you find that the Mr Market still offers you a price lower than IV, then either you have made an incorrect assumption elsewhere or the market is offering you an opportunity.

Second, in response to RW:
There are two major categories of deals that historically have been made by Buffett that will be much harder for his successor to emulate: (1) Deals of the "stamp of approval" variety...
(2) Deals where the sellers care more about ... Buffett's reputation to "hold forever" ...

History does not repeat, but it does rhyme. Who did the big "reputation" deals prior to Buffett? J P Morgan (1837-1913). How did things work out after his death? It might be worthwhile to review House of Morgan. In fact, I think I will.
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