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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks
|Subject: Stock index hits record high!!!||Date: 3/6/2013 12:49 PM|
|Author: WendyBG||Number: 417430 of 439811|
For those who can't listen to the news themselves, someone on METAR probably should announce:
The S&P 500 index has hit a record high!!!
WOW!!! (I hope I sound enthusiastic enough to satisfy CNBC watchers.)
Of course, that record high is not inflation-adjusted, but still...it's nice.
The Control Panel has been bullish since November 2012. The Fed is still easy and the economy is improving slowly but surely. There are no immediate Macro clouds on the horizon. (I don't include the government sequester, tax changes, and upcoming budget battles, the insolvent countries in Europe, the demographic imbalances in all industrialized nations and the ever-present danger of nuclear holocaust or other TEOTWAWKI events -- all of these are medium to long-term Macro hazards that won't hit this week or probably even this month.)
Here are discussions of whether the momentum will continue:
Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2013, 7:13 p.m. ET
As Confetti Settles, Strategists Wonder: Will Dow's Rally Last?
By CHRIS DIETERICH, PAUL VIGNA and MATT JARZEMSKY
One buy signal: Transportation stocks are rising in tandem with the blue-chip index, an occurrence that many investors view as a harbinger of more gains. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Transportation Index hit its own record high, which "absolutely" confirms to Mr. Saut and other believers in so-called Dow Theory that stocks still have room to climb, he said.... [end quote]
Of course, all the Macro risks have not gone away. The question is when they will re-assert themselves. The happy charts and dearth of reportage hints that the upward momentum won't be broken soon...but it's hard to tell. Barring outside problems (let's not forget 2010-2012, when Europe was the big story), the next problem is the budget battle in Washington at the end of March. This may or may not impact the stock market, especially if corporate profits continue to rise.
P.S. I wonder why people who think that Macroeconomics is a waste of time hang out on METAR to whine?
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