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Investing/Strategies / Mechanical Investing
|Subject: Re: Top Detectors||Date: 3/7/2013 7:47 AM|
|Author: mungofitch||Number: 242132 of 255985|
Because tops are slower and more rounded, I find them easier to deal with than bottoms which are often sharp reversals.
You usually have lots of time to edge towards the exit during a topping process.
For whatever it's worth, there might be some signs of a top.
Consider this graph, Nasdaq breadth trying to predict the averages S&P 500 company.
Note that when the red and/or blue smoothed breadth lines start falling,
the performance of the solid RSP line in the next while tends not to be good, and vice versa.
It's not easily turned into a specific signal because of the many little squiggles,
but if fresh equity highs happen while breadth is already weakening it's sometimes a top.
That's the core logic of my fancy numerical top detector.
In this time period, the weakening late last July was a false bearish note,
but all the other direction turns were pretty prompt and pretty good.
What about now?
The smoothed breadth lines turned down fairly firmly around Feb 21-22.
They have bounced up a pinch in the last couple of days, but not
obviously enough to represent a fresh uptrend--yet.
The recent equity highs have been met with (depending on your reading of it)
a weakening breadth trend or at least certainly not fresh highs in good breadth.
Far from definitive, just one straw in the wind.
But if the red and blue lines resume the downtrend that started a
couple of weeks ago, it looks more like a top than not.
Tempered always with the knowledge that tops are hard to spot, and
it's not usually all that important to spot them promptly.
It's gratifyingly rare for the market to fall very much very soon after a fresh high.
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