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Investing/Strategies / Mechanical Investing
|Subject: Re: Top Detectors||Date: 3/7/2013 10:44 AM|
|Author: Rayvt||Number: 242135 of 265157|
For whatever it's worth, there might be some signs of a top.
To be a bit harsh, I think looking for a top is a fool's game, and is probably evidence that the person looking for a top is probably a foolish (small f) investor, akin to a newbie poker player trying to draw an inside straight.
Alas, the world is full of such people.
OTOH, hope springs eternal, as evidence by all the TV informercials on how to become rich without lifting a finger.
"The financial markets are very efficient machines for moving money from the many to the few."
"True bear markets start slowly giving many months to get out as was the case in both 2000 and late 2007 into 2008. Fast declines, or panics typically retrace quickly and are better bought than sold."
If you look at market charts carefully, you see that tops are pretty rounded. So there is no need to be in a hair-trigger to get out -- there's plenty of time once the market truly is going down.
So you sell 15% below the top -- Big deal. You've still ducked out on the rest of the decline. But you don't get shaken out by the 10% dips that all the time happen in ongoing bull market.
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