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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/whether-you-are-looking-to-avoid-the-first-5-30578929.aspx

Subject:  Re: Top Detectors Date:  3/7/2013  1:49 PM
Author:  mauser96 Number:  242140 of 252768

Whether you are looking to avoid the first -5%, -10%,-15% etc of the start of a bear market in a way you are still trying to call a top. It's not easy to see that you are really in a bear market at any given moment, though very easy in retrospect. So some sort of methodology is needed, after prices have gone down 12% over a period of two months is it a bear market or just a temporary dip in the bull market? I'd like something to temper my gut feeling, which is usually wrong.

While the biggest risk to your wallet is in the last waterfall phase I would like to be out sometime before then. Considering that bull markets last longer than bear markets, and that so far eventually indices tend to go higher, I agree that bull markets should be given the benefit of the doubt. At least in countries that don't lose big wars.

Perhaps the biggest opportunity exists toward the end of a major bear market, the "I can't stand it anymore I have to get out" phase. Fortunately I do have good indicators for that, something to help me overcome the fear I share with others. But such opportunities are rare.
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