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Stocks F / Ford Motor Company
|Subject: Re: OT: Rob||Date: 3/16/2013 2:03 PM|
|Author: JustMee01||Number: 17479 of 18154|
Appreciate the thoughts. I agree with much of what you said. The multiple is likely to decline, but a ridiculously profitable company that's growing still should command a decent multiple, even if it compresses. This isn't a company with phantom profits. It practically prints money.
One aspect of high fliers that's a little different, is how dramatically they can decline in their transition. It seems like the same folks that buy them by the bushel load just start selling them in bushel loads and it's just no use fighting against the current. since they are expensive, the value crowd is slow to acknowledge the drop, because they're still pricey. Temporarily out of favor growth stocks are kind of caught between two worlds, no longer momentum favorites and not cheap enough to attract garbage pickers.
Best to step aside, let it play out and reassess, especially when you have sizeable gains. Since a third of it was in an IRA and had no capital gains, I pulled the trigger after the apparent acknowledgement that incidents were statistically up due to a change in reporting. That sounded enough like a reversal to me that I felt the market would take it that way; at least short term.
My thoughts were why let it unwind? Plus, the market feels frothy. There seem to be a lot of talking heads starting to pump the market more that we've gotten back on the Dow and the S&P is points off 2007. Valuations are getting higher. Not long ago, it was still reasonably easy to find decent buys. Now, everything seems to be bought up, except some really bottom of the barrel cyclicals. The general macro environment combined with prices has me skittish, I guess.
Riding a winner down was not in the plans...
Good luck on your business. Did you find retirement too slow for your taste? I hope all goes great. It sounds like fun. I've tried on a few occasions to talk my wife into starting a business, but the uncertainty is too much for her to agree to it. The potential for unsteady income is too unsettling. Combined with the healthcare issues, it's always proved a non-starter...
To the others: this personal message came up on this board b/c this is a board Rob reads and others may have followed his earlier opinions on ISRG. I thought they might also be interested in his comments now that some events created weakness, so I posted it rather than just emailing it. If not, my apologies for the off-topic post.
Good luck Rob,
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