The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Investing/Strategies / Mechanical Investing

URL:  http://boards.fool.com/second-term-democrat-president-30604229.aspx

Subject:  Second term democrat president Date:  3/24/2013  2:55 AM
Author:  JeffMLittle Number:  242433 of 258202

History shows that second term Democrat presidents have been among the best terms for economic growth. My spreadsheet says after inflation (the numbers are messy before 1947), we have the following economic growths:


Woodrow Wilson II - -8%
FDR II - 18.4%
Harry Truman II - 21.1%
LBJ II - 22.5%
Clinton II - 15.4%


Woodrow Wilson II was the post WWI depression, so I would tend to count it as an outlier. World wars have severe recessions during re-integrations, so I think we know what was going on there. Harry Truman is kind of cheating because it is actually FDR V and not a second term. The four above after Wilson are 4 of the top ten, so overall second term Democrat is a good portent assuming that we know we are not re-integrating from a world war.

I thought I would see how well this carried over to the stock market since republicans tend to be associated with P/E increases.

Looking at the dow, I saw the following: (looking at Jan 20 opening)


DJIA
FDR II 1937 184.1 1941 129.75 -2