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Subject:  Re: Second term democrat president Date:  3/24/2013  12:52 PM
Author:  JeffMLittle Number:  242436 of 270992

Consider looking at which party controls the houses of congress

I was going to ask if anyone had that information handy, but it turns out Wiki has similar information...

The overall democrat vs republican effect is not really in question. This has been written about extensively in books like "Not even Close" and "Unequal democracy". To see the overall distribution look at the ranked table by term over the period, again noting that before 1947 the numbers are slightly less accurate because you have to decide whether to use January or July inflation factors.

Presidential term Growth Noteable
Franklin D Roosevelt 3 73.7% New Deal, pre-WW II
Franklin D Roosevelt 1 40.7% Great Dep. Recovery
Lyndon B Johnson 2 22.5% Great Society
Harry S Truman 2 21.1% New Deal Weakened
Warren G Harding 1 20.9% Wealth Inequality Begin
John F Kennedy 1 20.4% Loose Money
Dwight D Eisenhower 1 18.9% After 20 yrs Dem.
Franklin D Roosevelt 2 18.4% Tight money Recession
Bill Clinton 2 15.4% Tech Stocks
Ronald W Reagan 2 14.0%
Richard M Nixon 1 13.2%
Ronald W Reagan 1 12.4% 2nd Wealth Ineq Begin
Calvin Coolidge 2 11.3%
Dwight D Eisenhower 2 10.6%
Bill Clinton 1 10.6% NAFTA
George W Bush 1 8.2% Iraq & Tax Cuts
Richard M Nixon 2 8.2%
George W Bush 2 5.1% 1929 levels of Ineq.
Jimmy Carter 1 5.0% Energy Crisis
George HW Bush 1 4.7% Third Term Republican
Woodrow Wilson 2 -8.0% Post WW I
Harry S. Truman 1 -10.6% Post WW II
Herbert C Hoover 1 -24.2% Third Term Republican

Notables from the wiki page:
Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover had the house for 10 out of 12 years and the senate 12 out of 12 years in the worst 12 year period in history.

FDR had both the house and senate for 12 years while the country grew between 180% and 190% total.

Anyway, as I mentioned earlier, if we try to profit from this we are gambling that this term will be more like Clinton II and less like some of the others (although other signs seem to be indicating so).
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