The Motley Fool Discussion Boards
Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks
|Subject: Re: Will Cyprus do a deal?||Date: 3/24/2013 1:33 PM|
|Author: FastMike||Number: 418754 of 457180|
"...As for the men in power, they are so anxious to establish the myth of infallibility that they do their utmost to ignore truth---Boris Pasternak..."
Another question is whether the Russian Oligarchy will retaliate. The economic hardships imposed on the Russians, and Eastern European Nations after the collapse of the Soviet Union is well within living memory, including the memory of Vladimir Putin. He might relish the opportunity to tweak the nose,.... no wait!... better put: to twist the arms of the EU or of its individual members. Keep in mind that some EU members are in a far better position to withstand a banking crises than others.
To have European leaders sweating under the pressure of a threatened Russian payback must certainly be in the back of comrade Putin's mind. Further, it might increase his popularity in the polls. (In Russia).
Should a 'levy' be imposed on the foreign deposits in Cyprus, Russian deposits may also be withdrawn from all over the EU. I wouldn't venture to guess how many rubles may be stashed in Spain, or Italy, or Greece, or even Germany. It might be a lot or perhaps it might be insignificant.
Who knows for sure?
On the other hand, if the Russian businesses can get enough concessions out of the Cypriots, well then that 20% bank levy could be a 'backdoor' solution.
An important point to keep in mind is that although Russia is far more democratic than it was under the Soviet system, Mr. Putin holds a lot of influence over the many billionaires he helped create while in power.
Russia and Europe have always vied for power. Now that Russia has become a regional economic power, I don't think that they would hesitate to knock the EU down a notch or two, if they can increase their own influence over both eastern and western Europe.
It seems that both sides are trying to out play each other. As it stands today, the Troika might be rolling the dice in this game of Risk.
Your game board Fool,
|Copyright 1996-2014 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us|