The Motley Fool Discussion Boards
Investing/Strategies / Retirement Investing
|Subject: Re: Hi gang... wow!!!||Date: 4/22/2013 7:04 PM|
|Author: Rayvt||Number: 72099 of 79066|
Yes, wow. You learn something new every day. For example, I learned that TMF has cesspool boards like "Retire Early CampFIRE". Just can't understand why people would come to a finance site to engage in political brouhaha's -- isn't that what Yahoo boards are for? With threads like http://boards.fool.com/catherine-gone-30632910.aspx?sort=who... all I can do is thank the lord that these people mostly stay away from boards about Making Money.
What I also anticipate doing... is using a financial projection relational database to build out a model, from scratch, rather than initially conforming to Ray's model... and when I am done we can compare & contrast. Models are often built from an 'expectation skew' (not saying that Ray's necessarily is... but building fresh on an app designed for the purpose may allow us to cross-view for discrepancies.)
Two eyes are better than one -- and a fresh clean-slate look is a great way to uncover faulty assumptions.
But, well, my spreadsheet is just looking at actual historical data, no "financial projections" involved. 'course there may be a blind spot in the way I looked at it, so it'll be interesting to see what you come up with (since it appears that CC won't be showing us any of her data).
references to drawdowns were limited to just 2-3 years ... The S&P500 has quite a few 50% (70% including inflation) drawdown periods where highwater is not re-attained for 20-25 years. That is not insignificant, and in every one of these periods a zero-floor, capped hedge position will outperform, all else equal.
I don't recall saying anything specific about drawdown periods. Except, perhaps, a mention that I look at 12-month drawdowns (i.e., drop in value from