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Real-Money Stock Picks / Orange Portfolio
|Subject: Re: PDS - a sell?||Date: 4/25/2013 3:55 PM|
|Author: LTInvestorJim||Number: 112 of 132|
He, he. I wasn't trying to convince you one way or another. But your question prompted me to look into this smaller position of mine for the first time in a while, and I think I convinced myself!
I think the capex is related to the purchase of all these new Tier 1 rigs, as they decommission older ones. I would think the investment rate will subside a bit over time. Meanwhile, I believe that if you could break out the expected ROIC for the new rigs, it would significantly exceed PDS's historical ROIC (otherwise, why would management do it?) and so, over time will help, not hurt, this metric.
Did you notice PDS reported this morning?
There's a ton of information there, which I haven't digested yet. Basically the top line declined because of a drop in drilling activity, causing fixed costs to be spread over a smaller revenue base. But dayrates are holding up because of their 70 new tier 1 rigs. Revenue dropped 7% while drilling activity dropped 23%. I don't think any of that is a surprise. Earnings were a beat -- 0.33 vs. 0.30 expectation. Revenue beat by 1%.
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