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|Subject: Re: bond of company in CH. 11||Date: 4/29/2013 7:32 PM|
|Author: globalist2013||Number: 34863 of 35930|
I believe that when the BK was announced, the bonds were trading at or below 50. If the work-out is realistically more than a year away, 56 might be a pretty good price - if I can actually get it on just a couple of bonds. I've just been sitting on them and not really paying attention since the BK until you said something. Looks like I might ought to consider selling them now. But don't take that as advice. I really don't have enough experience in this area to tell what a workout might be worth.
Actually, you do have enough experience, as your own comments reveal. You're aware of the price changes that have occurred, and you're aware that no one intentionally pays more for an object than a reasonable estimate of its worth. If the current bid is in the neighborhood of mid-50's, then that's as good an estimate of what the workout will be as attempting to grind through the numbers.
Ask yourself this, Who is currently bidding for those bonds? Not some retail investor who read a book about distressed investing and now thinks he/she can make a killing. I'd have to pull T&S to get a better idea of who the current players might be. But I'd bet that all bids are from pros and that any small lot being sold is a retailer deciding to cash out and move on, which isn't a bad choice. Taking the loss gets a monkey of worry of his/her back and frees up capital that can probably be better deployed elsewhere. Sitting tight has its advanatages, too. So, "it all depends".
Sell or sit tight? Who knows? But that's why investing plans get written before positions are put on, so that when things don't work out, the investor knows exactly what he/she will do and move on.
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