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Investing/Strategies / Retirement Investing
|Subject: Re: Roll old 401(k) and allocate assets||Date: 5/3/2013 10:10 PM|
|Author: Rayvt||Number: 72166 of 77286|
Since the market is so high, does it make sense to leave it as cash for a few months to see if a correction occurs? Or is it better to schedule automatic investments into positions now?
How do you know the "market is so high"? A: You don't, you're just repeating what the talking heads are saying.
Your investing performance will suffer as long as you invest according to what the media is saying.
This includes Money Magazine.
I'm also considering how to allocate my assets ... Does this idea seem reasonable for someone my age?
Target Retirement Date Fund are an example of "let's create a cool-sounding fund for the naifs to buy". Not the worst example (Indexed Universal Life is a far worse one), but still in that category.
The fund industry is always coming up with "Once Decision" "Fire-and-Forget" funds. People get sucked in and either lose bigtime or miss out on substantial gains.
Personally, I think that at 47 the appropriate allocation to Bond Fund is 0%. And at this stage of the market, 0% is a good target. When interest rates eventually rise, bond funds are going to get crushed.
The allocations you mentioned sound like what is found in typical Money Magazine-type articles. Midcap's are not needed-- they are essentially redundant. Large & small cap is all you need. But looking at your proposed small percentage allocations brings up the question - why bother? If you are only going to put 2% in some asset class, why bother? That's not enough to make any difference in your total portfolio.
How active do you want to be? "Active" not as in "frantically trading" but as in "actively manage" your investments.
If not at all, then I'd go with more like 75% VTI (Total Stock Market ETF) and 25% CWI (MSCI ACWI ex-US). Or maybe 50% VTI, 20% CWI, and 15% each to smallcaps & REITs.
If you want to be a bit more active -- and want a good shot to retire as a 2%'er or even a 1%'er ....
( http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-distri... )
Start with Faber's classic paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=962461 and google some of the keywords to find other papers & articles.
You can run that strategy with an effort of about 1-2 hours once a month. But that means EVERY month.
Start here and read every post from the last several years.
Then Gary Antonacci's: Risk Premia Harvesting through Dual Momentum
This is a pretty tough read, even for an experienced investor. It took me several re-readings before I completely understood it. Or maybe I'm just slow. ;-)
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