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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/perhaps-i-dont-understand-the-strategy-i-count-30667943.aspx

Subject:  Re: S&P & SMA Date:  5/4/2013  7:34 PM
Author:  Rayvt Number:  72194 of 80405

Perhaps I don't understand the strategy, I count 3 dips of the S&P below the 200 day SMA in the last 2 years alone.
First off, I don't use 200-day SMA. I use 43 weeks or 10 months. I evaluate only weekly, not daily. For monthly, I do it on the last Friday of the month, not the last calendar day.

And I use hystersis. Normally, my sell signal is a close 3% below the 43-week SMA. If you use 0%, then you get a flurry of signals right around the crossover point.

Here's the counts I get, 1/1/50 to 3/15/13 (all round-trip trades):
daily, +0% & -0% (buy & sell): 177
weekly, +0 & -0: 95
weekly, +0% & -3%: 39
monthly, 0/0 and 0/-3: 47 & 45

Why can't I back test it? The logic is simple to implement using historical data. In fact I did back test it and it did improve returns over a straight 60/40 bala