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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/i-voted-for-total-nonsense-i-think-that-trying-30683006.aspx

Subject:  Re: Poll: Technical Analysis Date:  5/14/2013  11:15 AM
Author:  MDCigan Number:  17105 of 21596

I voted for total nonsense. I think that trying to trade major indexes or widely traded stocks (e.g. Apple) on the basis of technical analysis is a fool's game for the small investor. There is no way you can beat supercomputers.

This reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of what most technical analysis is based on. Traditional technical analysts/chartists are not competing with supercomputers. Supercomputers are used for HFT trading at ultra-short time frames. Most traditional TA is focused on longer-term time frames that have nothing to do with supercomputers running algorithms to trade over milliseconds. All that said, some respected technical analysts with phenonemal long-term track records of making money (like Peter Brandt) have indicated they believe computers have made patterns much more unreliable at daily time frames, especially because the computers probably are programmed to take out key technical levels to trigger human action, and then reverse. So although something like a head and shoulders top might still provide a great tradable signal at a longer-term time frame like the Japanese Yen over the past few years, looking for head and shoulders patterns on a daily or weekly chart is unlikely to yield good results.

In any case, as a wise man says, just make money with whatever technique you believe works and is consistent with your personality. For me, technical analysis is primarily a risk mitigation technique just in case I am horribly off in my fundamental analysis. For example, based on the fundamentals as I understand them, I am bullish on gold. Yet presently, the chart on gold looks horrendous at all time frames. Whatever I believe, the overall action of the chart is telling me I am very wrong on something, so for now, I have no position in gold.
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