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Social Clubs / Deranged Monkey Criticism
|Subject: Re: Poll: Technical Analysis||Date: 5/14/2013 5:30 PM|
|Author: MDCigan||Number: 17124 of 25070|
I'm not sure I understand what you mean. It may not be a crystal ball (I understand those things are infallible), but does it have predictive power? If you really can't tell which ones will break out and which ones will stay in the base, then I'm not getting why this would be useful to do.
DTM, here is your homework assignment. I'm not going to take the time now to find it, but there is a study that was done that does show some predictive ability for certain pattern formations. I believe it was Andrew Lo (off the top of my head) and I believe there have been some additional studies that reinforce his work.
As for not learning anything from NFLX, I was very happy to get out of that one with my skin, but I eventually closed my short position with a manageable loss, largely because it seemed crazy betting against a solid company, even if it was overvalued. I can't give much credit to TA for that one. I guess I'm probably a hopeless case.
I'd have to revisit my e-mails and charts I marked up for you, but to the best of my recollection, I think the ongoing TA I was sending you indicated to you that technicall you should NOT be short during the time you were.
In any case, I am kind of an idiot for even debating this. One would think the umpteenth time I do it, I'd learn it is a pretty stupid debate. Honestly, anyone who is consistently compounding money at decent rates without chart analysis shouldn't even take a second look.
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