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Subject:  Re: maybe done Date:  5/16/2013  11:58 AM
Author:  BAGoldmn Number:  243093 of 270780

How have I done generally speaking?

As old timers on the board know, I used to spend a ton of time keeping track and reporting my results. I stopped doing that probably over a decade ago, when the investment of my time just wasn't worth it, because my portfolio had shrunk so much after the dot com bubble (and then again in 2008).

My "Killer Portfolio" has always been an 18-position blend of the best backtested mix of six 3-deep screens. Over the years, I've varied the screens a bit, and varied my trading frequency a bit too, between monthly and quarterly, depending on how busy I was (in the very early days, I think there were some annual screens too).

Generally speaking, I've beaten the market when it goes up and did worse when it went down. The last time I tried to calculate net CAGR (after tax, margin, trading, SEC fees, etc.), I think I was barely in positive territory and no better than SPY. If I counted my time as a cost (rather than an emotional hobby), I think my returns would be negative.

So when I see SPY climbing like it has this year (and the end of last), and my port hasn't leaped way ahead of it, I get pretty dismayed. Maybe the new mix has better downside protection without the mojo of the likes of ANCER and such. So when SPY inevitably tumbles at some point this year, we shall see how the cookie crumbles....

If I fall worse, I think it's pretty clear: the only reason for me to stay in MI is emotional investing!

Don't you just LOVE telling your friends you beat the market (even if it only happens once in a while and doesn't offset those damned losses)?! I still long for those days of yore in the last century when I can remember six-figure, single-month gains, like a dream, till they turned into nightmares.

We can try, but life isn't mechanical after all. Or if it is, I sure haven't figured out or heard the algorithm yet.
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