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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/and-ive-all-but-proven-that-i-am-not-smarter-30687694.aspx

Subject:  Re: maybe done Date:  5/16/2013  4:43 PM
Author:  Radish Number:  243113 of 253781

and I've all but proven that I am not smarter than the market, despite a consistent, disciplined long-term mechanical approach.

Pretty much what I concluded years ago. After trying MI for years and keeping careful track of my returns and also of my return on an actual S&P fund, my conclusion was that with very careful application of MI-screen trading I could possibly fairly consistently beat the S&P by a very small amount. But in real life, I'd make the occasional mistake trading the stocks of the screens... and those took my actual returns very consistently slightly below my returns on the S&P fund. With the potential to go way below given mistakes of greater magnitude.

Given that the "total stock market" funds tend to perform microscopically better than S&P funds, I decided that financially I'm better off just doing those rather than MI.

Of course sitting on a fund forever is not nearly as much fun as trading MI-screen stocks, so that's one down side.

Phil
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