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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/the-issue-is-the-timing-method-you-used-of-course-30689251.aspx

Subject:  Re: maybe done Date:  5/17/2013  2:30 PM
Author:  FlyingCircus Number:  243135 of 253045

The issue is the timing method you used.

Of course it is! However, my point was it's the conundrum any MI investor/timer faces. To the point:
* The actual results of all the MI screens Bill2m tracks show marked decrease in performance in the summer months (including YEY)
* Many backtests show marked decrease in performance in the summer months (including YEY)
==> so there is rational evidence that screens (including YEY) could be avoided in summer months and not markedly affect performance.

So the point is the user (in this case me) can make an informed, probability-based choice and STILL have it underperform for a long time.

YEY has also underperformed recently in the "bullish" period - it was essentially flat for me from October on. While the indexes have gone up close to 20% in 6 months, the screen has been flat.

Variant screen performance over a day, over a week, even a month, there should be absolutely no complaining or other expectation. But consistently 3 months, 6 months and longer, the "why" of that is worth analyzing.

FC
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