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Subject:  Re: Talk me out of a Financial Advisor Date:  6/2/2013  3:45 PM
Author:  Rayvt Number:  72368 of 88438

His 10 year return for a portfolio size I'm looking at was 9.79% ending in March with a lower dip in 2009. Again, after fees. By my calculations, that's over a percent better than the S&P with dividends.
As it so happens, I have some data and a handy analysis program. Without looking ahead of time, here's what it says about some various investment vehicles for Mar-1-2003 to Mar-31-2013. (Running these as I type, so I'm not peeking ahead of time.)

"rate" is CAGR.

SPX (S&P 500 index w/o dividends)
B&H: $1.0000 grows to $ 1.8931 in 10.07 years. rate: 6.54% stdev: 20.6%

SPY (w/div)
B&H: $1.0000 grows to $ 2.3000 in 10.07 years. rate: 8.62% stdev: 20.6%

SPY (w/o div)
B&H: $1.0000 grows to $ 1.8803 in 10.07 years. rate: 6.47% stdev: 20.5%

So that there's your S&P. Up a total of 8.9% w/o dividends or 13.0% w/dividends. If he's up total of 9.8%, he's indeed doing about 1% better than the S&P -- without dividends. But not WITH dividends.
Total return of 9.8% is a CAGR ("rate") of 7.1%

Some more (all include reinvested dividends):

VIVAX (Vanguard Value ETF (VTV))
B&H: $1.0000 grows to $ 2.4256 in 10.07 years. rate: 9.20% stdev: 21.9%

VIGRX (Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG))
B&H: $1.0000 grows to $ 2.3106 in 10.07 years. rate: 8.67% stdev: 20.1%

IJS - iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Value Index
B&H: $1.0000 grows to $ 3.0617 in 10.07 years. rate: 11.75% stdev: 26.4%

FCNTX - Fidelity Contrafund
B&H: $1.0000 grows to $ 3.0617 in 10.07 years. rate: 11.75% stdev: 26.4%

VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF
B&H: $1.0000 grows to $ 2.3906 in 10.07 years. rate: 9.04% stdev: 20.6%

Back to some detailed statistics on SPY:

CAGR: 8.62% stdev: 20.6% MxDD: -51% Sortino: 0.32 UI: 12.4 UPI: 0.7

SPY with 10-month Simple Moving Average timing:
CAGR: 8.98% stdev: 12.5% MxDD: -23% Sortino: 0.34 UI: 7.0 UPI: 1.3

See that? About the same return (CAGR) but half the risk (stdev and MaxDrawDown)

He beat the S&P500 without dividends.
He didn't beat S&P500 including dividends. He didn't beat a whole lot of other ETFs, either.
In terms of volatility and dips, you can cut those in half with a simple mechanical timing rule.
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