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|Subject: Re: Talk me out of a Financial Advisor||Date: 6/2/2013 3:45 PM|
|Author: Rayvt||Number: 72368 of 82008|
His 10 year return for a portfolio size I'm looking at was 9.79% ending in March with a lower dip in 2009. Again, after fees. By my calculations, that's over a percent better than the S&P with dividends.
As it so happens, I have some data and a handy analysis program. Without looking ahead of time, here's what it says about some various investment vehicles for Mar-1-2003 to Mar-31-2013. (Running these as I type, so I'm not peeking ahead of time.)
"rate" is CAGR.
So that there's your S&P. Up a total of 8.9% w/o dividends or 13.0% w/dividends. If he's up total of 9.8%, he's indeed doing about 1% better than the S&P -- without dividends. But not WITH dividends.
Total return of 9.8% is a CAGR ("rate") of 7.1%
Some more (all include reinvested dividends):
Back to some detailed statistics on SPY:
See that? About the same return (CAGR) but half the risk (stdev and MaxDrawDown)
He beat the S&P500 without dividends.
He didn't beat S&P500 including dividends. He didn't beat a whole lot of other ETFs, either.
In terms of volatility and dips, you can cut those in half with a simple mechanical timing rule.
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