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|Subject: Re: Talk me out of a Financial Advisor||Date: 6/2/2013 4:34 PM|
|Author: Rayvt||Number: 72375 of 73980|
"$1.0000 grows to $ 1.8931"
Did I do it wrong?
Yeah, guess so. I *know* better than to do fractions in my head!
I know darned good and well about anchoring bias fallacy,too -- and here I went and fell for it again. To convert gain-factor to percentage you subtract 1 and multiply by 100. I saw the "1.89", subtracted 1 and then imagined I saw 8.9%. Doing the same to "$1.0000 grows to $ 2.3000" results in 13%. Sorry.
But....the other computations are right. That bit of my commentary is wrong. If he got 9.8% CAGR, then he *did* beat the S&P including dividends by about 1%. And he beat a couple of the other ETFs, too. He didn't beat IJS or FCNTX, though.
historical prices for VFINX. ... adjusted close (including distributions)... or an annual return of 8.4%.
My program uses the *actual* closing prices and the *actual* dividends and the *actual* splits, rather than yahoo's "adjusted" prices. You can never be 100% sure that somebody's adjusted prices are entirely correct, because you don't know how they compute it or if they computed it accurately, or if they have errors in their data. My program computes the effect of reinvested dividends itself. That's why using Yahoo adjusted data shows 8.4% and using the actual raw data shows 8.6%.
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