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|Subject: A Very Humbling Trade||Date: 7/10/2013 10:39 AM|
|Author: just1trader||Number: 35009 of 35930|
Take a look at that price chart for Ultrapetrol’s 9’s of ’14 and ask yourself this question: At what price would you like to have bought that bond? Right at the bottom, of course, somewhere around mid-70s. Now ask yourself this. Where did you actually buy it? I don’t know about you. But I have to confess that I did what --retrospectively-- was a poor entry. I got in 02/09/12 on five at 92.219 instead of the 20 points lower that subsequently became available, which raises a whole bunch of questions about how one runs one’s game.
#1, Why did I buy when I did, and in the size I did?
#2, Why didn’t I average down when prices moved against me?
#3, When prices did recover, why didn’t I average up?
Permit me to work through those questions one at a time.
Currently, in a whole bunch of TMF’s forums, there are multiple threads focused on guessing the direction of interest rates. Some are thoughtful. Some are sloppy. But all of them are bullsh*t, beca