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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/a-very-humbling-trade-30769159.aspx

Subject:  A Very Humbling Trade Date:  7/10/2013  10:39 AM
Author:  just1trader Number:  35009 of 35930

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/BondDetail.j...

Take a look at that price chart for Ultrapetrol’s 9’s of ’14 and ask yourself this question: At what price would you like to have bought that bond? Right at the bottom, of course, somewhere around mid-70s. Now ask yourself this. Where did you actually buy it? I don’t know about you. But I have to confess that I did what --retrospectively-- was a poor entry. I got in 02/09/12 on five at 92.219 instead of the 20 points lower that subsequently became available, which raises a whole bunch of questions about how one runs one’s game.

#1, Why did I buy when I did, and in the size I did?
#2, Why didn’t I average down when prices moved against me?
#3, When prices did recover, why didn’t I average up?


Permit me to work through those questions one at a time.

Currently, in a whole bunch of TMF’s forums, there are multiple threads focused on guessing the direction of interest rates. Some are thoughtful. Some are sloppy. But all of them are bullsh*t, beca