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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/i-just-got-back-from-3-weeks-in-the-baltic-and-30769941.aspx

Subject:  Re: Hi gang... wow!!! Date:  7/10/2013  6:20 PM
Author:  Rayvt Number:  72540 of 75696

I just got back from 3 weeks in the Baltic and London, and was looking forward to seeing Dave's write-up showing his IUL data. And was disappointed to find nothing.
Darn.

Anyway .... to continue beating a dead horse .... I believe that early on Dave asked about 20-year withdrawal scenarios. Obviously, the scenarios of interest would be for *bad* times, because in good times the money never runs out.

Here are some figures for a one-time $100,000 deposit, then 20 years of withdrawing $417/mo. That's an SWR of 5%/yr, with no adjustment for inflation -- which is larger than the 4% that is typically bandied about. Items that are of interest are: final value, whether or not the account gets depleted, how many months the IUL account is bigger/smaller than the S&P500 B&H account, and the lowest account value.

Scenario 1: Jan 1981 to Jan 2001, encapsulating the 1981-82 bear market.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $1,155,911 $78,686
IUL (loan) $185,161 $94,941
# IUL best 21 mo (9%)
# S&P best 219 mo (91%)

Scenario 2: Jan 1973 to Jan 1993, encapsulating the 1973-75 bear market.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $325,832 $51,288
IUL (loan) $77,636 $66,904
# IUL best 96 mo (40%)
# S&P best 144 mo (60%)

Scenario 3: Jan 1993 to Jan 2013, the most-recent 20 years.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $287,266 $98,801
IUL (loan) $107,556 $95,471
# IUL best 4 mo (2%)
# S&P best 236 mo (98%)


Scenario 2a: Jan 1973 to Jan 2003, 30 years of withdrawals.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $729,110 $51,288
IUL (loan) $58,526 $58,526
# IUL best 96 mo (27%)
# S&P best 264 mo (73%)


Scenario 4: Jan 1975 to Jan 1995, 20 years not beginning with a bear.
Accnt	Final Value		Lowest
B&H w/div $1,022,318 $100,000
IUL (loan) $102,029 $88,069
# IUL best 0 mo (0%)
# S&P best 240 mo (100%)

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