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|Subject: S&P500 distribution of returns||Date: 9/20/2013 4:09 PM|
|Author: Rayvt||Number: 73126 of 76882|
S&P500 distribution of returns
Presented as base data for any future discussions where floors and caps are a consideration of investment strategies.
Statistics for all rolling 12-month returns of S&P500 index (excluding dividends)
Jan 1950 to Jan 2013 744 annual periods
Reading the above, for 0% floor, 12% cap
28% of the time you avoided a loss averaging -9.7%
29% of the time you got a gain averaging 6.7%
43% of the time you got a 12% gain but missed out on an additional 9.1%
Note: Because there is an 11 month overlap in the rolling periods, the figures may not actually have the importance that is implied. For example, one really really bad (or good) month will effect 12 annual periods. So it's not that 12 years are bad, it's that 1 month effects 12 annual periods. When there are a lot of occurrances, this is washed away, but when there are only a small number of occurrance, one outlier will have an unwarranted weight.
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