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Subject:  Re: S&P500 distribution of returns Date:  9/20/2013  8:48 PM
Author:  Rayvt Number:  73128 of 88077

1) I'm leaving politics out of this. Letting yourself be swayed by your politcal opinions is a great way to cause you to do stupid^h^h^h^h^h^h sub-optimal things with your money. As I mentioned earlier, people who stayed out of stocks from 2008 on because of what they felt about Obama missed out on DOUBLING their money.

2) My computations are not "based on the past". They are a *description* of the past. They are not intended to be a prediction about the future. The indented usage is for the question: "If I had started investing in 19XX, what would my account have done from then to 2013".

2b) The best predictor of the future is the past. The actions of the market is driven by human nature -- fear, greed, etc. As far as experts have been able to determine, human nature has remained constant for the last 50,000 years.[*]

2c) The words "This time it's different" are *never* correct.

[*] Warning: political exposition follows. Content may be disturbing to some viewers.
This is why the USSR foundered and why all Communist systems have failed or are failing. They try to deny human nature. This is as successful as trying to deny gravity.
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