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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/ytm-it-sounds-like-you-analyzed-this-company-in-30964922.aspx

Subject:  Re: NII Capital (NIHD) 2016 Bonds 10% Date:  11/8/2013  6:38 PM
Author:  howardgt Number:  35098 of 35367

ytm,

It sounds like you analyzed this company in more detail than I did. I just wait for these companies to get into trouble and when their bonds fall into my range (> 10%) and they look like they should survive, I take a small position and start following the company. If I like the story (or the odds), then I average down to a point (we are here now for NII) and then clip coupons. If things improve or it looks like they are on the verge of turning things around, I’m prepared to double down again. But I’m not sure I want to do that with NII. Their high debt sort of scares me.

I’ve read that NII has lots of assets that can be monetized (spectrum, towers, etc) in the case of BK, I’m not sure that our bonds (NII Capital Corp) are high enough on the recovery pecking order to get at these assets. If I remember correctly, Moody’s gave other bonds in the enterprise (NII International Telecom) a higher recovery rating.

But I agree, It’s a growth industry, and they should be able to turn things around. But they better do it quickly because they are running out of runway.

Yes, I hold the Molycorp converts 3.25% 2016. Not much coverage in the case of BK, but they are the first of their bonds to mature and the company does have a tangible book, so I’m guessing that they would be taken over before a default. But I agree the 10%’s have the best recovery coverage.

I also own James River 7.875’s of 2019… now that is a real distressed situation!!! They are trading in the 30’s and it looks like the market assumes the worst. But from listening to the cc’s, I think management is trying really hard to hang-on until the coal market turns and avoid BK. But who knows… “I pays my money and takes my chances”... Isn't that what junk bond investing is all about?

Howard
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