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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/if-you-question-whether-the-models-work-heres-a-31134592.aspx

Subject:  Re: Arctic Ice Date:  2/24/2014  1:03 PM
Author:  bjchip Number:  445385 of 458907

If you question whether the models work, here's a really interesting graph of a model run with the ENSO information correctly timed rather than being random. It is stuck against the actual temperatures.

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/pogah_cru.jpeg

The models haven't "failed" they're actually quite good. The physics work or that "model" would not be able to achieve a 0.97 correlation coefficient. Just remember that the models have to use statistics in place of prediction for much of what they project. That's why the trend is based on 100 years of history, never 10 or 20.

That we don't have a good method of predicting ENSO makes it a lot harder to do things that we ought to do... like convincing people that this is serious, but I do not in honesty think people in general can understand it is serious until it starts actually affecting them, rather than their children. The real trouble is still comfortably in the future.

When it comes to the present, what I call the 2x4 event (whatever it actually is), will result in the conversion of the population. This will be utterly complete and those who have fostered denial will disappear from the political landscape. Several political parties and philosophies may cease to exist for the next 1000 years, but it will be a lot too late to actually act.

Here's a different approach
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/02/06/cowtan-way/#more-7024...

and a bit of discussion
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models-intermediate....

Still - If you demand to get "weather" out of a climate model you are asking too much of the thing. It can only tell you roughly what is going to happen to the planet, not what is going to happen to South Dakota. Having unrealistic expectations isn't going to help you come to good decisions.


This however :

If it were primarily due to CO2, I have no hope that the world could make a significant difference in the amount of CO2 being put into the atmosphere.</i

and item 4 that follows it, are substantial and reasonable observations. Largely because the world isn't trying and it isn't TRYING because there are wealthy people opposing action of any sort at all. The "Merchants of Doubt" isn't just a phrase.

Yet if the world DID act, the CO2 currently in the system would not increase TOO much more and the climate might well be persuaded to not pass into completely unprecedented (for our civilization) extremes.

I'm no more optimistic than you, but it remains a possible thing.

As I pointed out to Namkato, it looks to me like debt based disaster is going to occur before climate based catastrophe. Neither to occur (climate certainly not and debt I think not) this year.

Good luck.

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