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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks


Subject:  Re: Arctic Ice Date:  2/24/2014  2:23 PM
Author:  rubberthinking Number:  445394 of 538729

The odds are, that the fall will be made, not by fear of climate change, but by the expense of hydrocarbons. As such the dollar amounts that the companies dealing in hydrocarbons can remain high, even while the volume starts to fall.



Why are hydrocarbons expensive? Perhaps most of you are missing the main point here. Hydrocarbons are expensive for a very indirect reason. When you burn a hydrocarbon to make steam the process of mining the hydrocarbon or putting in the gas well and then producing the steam and finally shipping the electricity down the wire uses 92% of the energy involved. Only 8% of the energy as electricity gets to an end point. Many end points are a ridiculous waste. Every town in America has its shop signage lite up at 3 am.

The bar for alternative energies is actually quite low.

Hans said by 2050 the units of energy would drop 25%. I actually think the drop will be even more. And that more people will have washing machines. The production of greenhouse gasses will drop significantly over the next 35 years. The earth will heal. Right now the green movement is a political movement. The reality is a technical reality not a political movement. As PV becomes more efficient in comparison to hydrocarbons a massive shift will occur. The other massive shift will be in fuel cells. The recent testing of Synthetic Double Perovskites are a huge advance in that area.

As far as today's hydrocarbon prices, those products are in dollars. As the dollar strengthens/appreciates at some point going forward hydrocarbons will decrease in price. You are making your statements during a period of relative dollar weakness. A depreciated dollar wont be lasting.

Then again if you look at the 1950 to 1960 period and gasoline prices by the barrel, the price went from $8 to $10 over that period. It was almost a flat line to slightly up of 25% over the decade. That is an inflation rate of close to 2% per year. The factor you dont see in that approach is the expansion of consumption by Americans and Europeans in that period. So the end results of this decade, 2014 to 2024, will be based on how fast alternative energy enters the market. By 2024 a drop in the price of hydrocarbons should be beginning to be factored into the markets. There will be permanent declines in how much oil, gas and coal are used in all sorts of processes, except farming. And even when it comes to farming we need significant progress. A different topic.

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