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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks


Subject:  Re: Arctic Ice Date:  2/24/2014  11:17 PM
Author:  warrl Number:  445435 of 539056

This board has Risk in its title, so presumably we are here to help us think about risk. There is a lot about the climate system and climate change that is uncertain. Most of the big hullabaloo is arguing about whether this result is right or wrong, or whether that conclusion is supported by the majority of scientists. But I almost never see a serious discussion of risk that concludes there is no risk of climate change. The risk is almost always swept under the rug by those who want to minimize the impact of climate change.

Actually, that isn't the problem.

Pretty much everyone who's studied the question agrees that climate change is happening and it's a risk worthy of consideration.

But that's where the agreement ends. From there on, two major factions exist; and one of those is willing to discuss the risk only on its own terms - while pretending that the other faction is denying or ignoring the risk.

The two major factions do not agree on, among other things:
* the likely direction of major climate change in the next century
* the likely magnitude of major climate change in the next century
* the likely causes of major climate change in the next century
* whether the climate change of the past century is unusual, or cyclical

Obviously all four of those have a significant impact on what one should do in response to the risk.
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