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|Subject: Happy March 10th!||Date: 3/10/2014 8:32 PM|
|Author: grier22||Number: 44588 of 44596|
14th Anniversary of the 2000 top (amazing how time flies), and pretty close to the 5th anniversary of the 2009 bottom.
Buffet's supposedly favorite valuation metric for the overall market,
'Total market cap to GDP' on friday was 118% or "significantly overvalued" with US stocks priced for a 1.6% annual return over the next 10 years.
Valuation isn't much use for short term timing, though. Grantham in his latest letter gave a wild a$$ guess that we might go another couple of years higher with the Fed at our backs but that you stand a chance of being bushwhacked.
The next bullish year three in GMO's presidential cycle starts in Oct 2015. Could this bull run hang around that long?? 2008 teaches us not to put too much faith in bullish year threes.
I got lucky timing the last bubble and bottom. Not expecting lightning to strike twice, I plan to stay mostly invested this time in long term accounts, though I've raised dry powder.
The longer I do this the less confident I am in timing. Paul Samuelson supposedly once quipped, 'Market timing is a sin, but everyone should sin a little.'
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