A December 12 call has a 37% chance of being in the money on expiration, I believe that is roughly the chance that MCP will be 12 or greater on expiration, meaning you have a 63% chance that MCP will be below 12 on expiration. Only reason I mention the 12 call is because I believe MCP needs to be 12 or greater by expiration for the December 10 call to be profitable.Do not think you are missing anything. Very nice review of MCP. Thanks.
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